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基于Maxent模型的假臭草潜在分布区预测
郭燕青,史梦竹,李建宇,傅建炜,吴梅香
1.福建农林大学植物保护学院, 福州 350002;2.福建省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 福建省作物有害生物监测与治理重点实验室, 农业部福州作物有害生物科学观测实验站, 福州 350013;3.闽台特色作物病虫生态防控国家重点实验室, 福州 350002
摘要:  为有效开展假臭草的防除工作,运用最大熵值模型(Maxent)和地理信息技术(GIS)对假臭草(Praxelis clematidea)在中国的潜在分布区和影响其分布的主导环境变量进行预测。运用AUC法对预测精度进行评价,达到“优秀”水平。结果表明,Maxent模型预测结果具有较高的可信度。假臭草在中国的潜在适生面积为785 985 km2,占总国土面积的8.19%,主要分布在华南及东南区域,其中福建、广东、海南和广西省为假臭草的中高适生区。福建省的假臭草分布最为广泛,61.98%的福建区域适合假臭草的生长,其中闽南沿海为假臭草的高适生区,而闽北区域假臭草的种群密度较低。2月最低温可能是限制假臭草分布的主要气候变量,贡献率为61.70%;最干季度降水量、9月最高温对假臭草的分布具有一定的影响。假臭草的分布预测为早期监测和预警提供理论依据和技术支持,防止假臭草的进一步扩散蔓延。
关键词:  假臭草  Maxent模型  潜在分布区  生态因子
DOI:10.11926/jtsb.3977
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1202101-4);福建省科技重大专项(2017NZ0003-1-1);福建省农业科学院科技创新团队(STIT2017-1-12);福建农林大学创新科技项目(KFA17386A)资助
Prediction of Potential Distribution Area of Praxelis clematidea Based on Maxent Model
GUO Yan-qing1,2, SHI Meng-zhu2,3, LI Jian-yu2,3, FU Jian-wei2,3,4, WU Mei-xiang1,3
1.College of Plant Protection, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China;2.Institute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Fujian Key Laboratory for Monitoring and Integrated Management of Crop Pests/Fuzhou Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests, Ministry of Agriculture, Fuzhou 350013, China;3.State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fuzhou 350002, China;4.Institute of Quality Standards & Testing Technology for Agro-Products, Fujian Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Fuzhou 350001, China
Abstract:  In order to prevent and remove effectively invasive plant Praxelis clematidea, the potential distribution area and dominant environment variables were predicted by using the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and the Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. The accuracy of prediction was evaluated at "excellent" level by AUC (area under curve) method. The results showed that the prediction of Maxent model had high reliability. The potential suitable growth area of P. clematidea in China was 785 985 km2, accounting for 8.19% of all China land area. This species mainly distributed in southern and southeastern China, especially in Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi (high suitable areas). The distribution of P. clematidea in Fujian Province was the widest, which 61.98% of the area was suitable for growth. It was high suitable area of P. clematidea in coast of south Fujian, but the population density in the north of Fujian was low relatively. The minimum temperature in February might be the restrictive variable of the distribution of P. clematidea with the contribution rate of 61.7%. Precipitation of the driest quarter and maximum temperature in September have a certain influence on its distribution. These provided a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of P. clematidea and some effective measures must be taken to prevent its spread for the further.
Key words:  Praxelis clematidea  Maxent model  Potential distribution area  Ecological factor

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